기준금리와 경제의 관계, relationship between the base rate and the economy

금리란 기본적으로 화폐의 시간적 감가(물가상승)에 대한 보상이므로 물가상승률과 비슷하게 가는 것이 기본이다. 그러나 물가상승률을 정확하게 산정하기 어렵고 그렇게만 해서는 경제성장을 반영할 수 없기 때문에 (명목) 경제성장률을 상한으로 잡게 된다. 전통적인 경제학에서 인플레이션은 통화량 증가와 동의어이며 경제성장률과도 같은 것이 가장 이상적이라고 본다. 따라서 기준금리를 올리고 내리는 것은 단기적인 방책일 뿐 기본적으로는 물가상승에 후행한다고 가정하고 아래 글을 읽기를 바란다. 각국 중앙은행이 금리를 어떤 목적하에 조정한다고 생각하면 더욱 어렵고 돌아가는 방법으로 이해해야 하며 음모론에 빠지기 쉽다.

일반적으로 각국 정부들은 경제가 침체되었을 경우 금리를 낮추고, 경제가 과잉되었을 때 금리를 높이는 통화정책을 취하고 있다. 일례로 리먼 브라더스 사태 때 세계의 각국 정부가 금리를 낮춘 경우, 2020년 코로나19 팬데믹 사태 때 금리를 낮춘 경우가 있다. 2022년에 들어서는 경제가 과열되었다며 미국 연방준비제도에서 금리를 급격하게 올리는 소위 빅스텝(0.5%p 인상)과 자이언트 스텝(0.75%p 인상)을 단행하여 세계경기가 급격히 냉각되었다.

때문에 저금리는 왜 경제를 활성화하고, 고금리는 왜 경제를 위축시키는지에 대해서 알아야 할 필요가 있다.

1. 기준금리가 변경되면, 단기시장금리, 장기시장금리, 은행 예금 및 대출 금리 등 금융시장의 금리 전반에 영향을 미치게 된다. 금리가 오르든 내리든 모든 금융시장 전반에 영향을 미치게 되지만 금리가 상승하는 경우에 대해서만 예를 들어보자. 우선 기준금리가 상승하면, 앞서 얘기한 모든 금융 시장의 금리가 상승하고, 금리 상승은 모든 경제 주체에게 차입(빚을 내는 것)을 억제하고, 저축을 늘리게 한다.

2. 예를 들어, 기준금리가 올랐다고 가정하면, 대출이자와 예금이자가 모두 오른다. 따라서 은행에서 대출을 받으려는 사람은 금리가 이전보다 올랐으므로 이전보다 대출을 하지 않으려고 할 것이고, 예금을 하지 않던 사람들도 예금 이자가 올랐으니 예금을 하려고 할 것이다. 가계기준이라면, 가계저축이 증가하고 가계대출이 감소한다. 즉, 가계는 높은 이자를 부담해야 하는 대출을 받아가면서 돈을 쓰고 싶지 않아서 대출을 줄이게 되고, 더불어 높은 이자를 받을 수 있는 저축에 돈을 늘리면서 소비가 줄어든다. 기업들도 마찬가지로 대출 이자가 올랐으므로 대출을 받아서 하는 신규 투자는 축소하게 되고 대출을 받지 않으면 유동자금이 줄어들게 되므로 기업이 가지고 있는 유동자산의 지출이 줄어들게 된다.

3. 기준 금리가 올랐다고 가정하면 주식, 채권, 부동산 등 자산 가격도 영향을 받는다. 기준금리가 상승하여 대출 금리가 오를 경우, 대출로 주식, 채권, 부동산 등에서 높은 수익을 내지 못한다면 이자로 인한 부담이 매우 커지기 때문에, 이들 자산을 위험하게 대출로 구매하려는 수요가 억제되고, 대출을 최소화하고 보유한 현금만으로 구매 할 경우, 대출을 해서 구매 할 때보다 구매자의 구매여력이 축소되기 때문에 해당 자산을 가지고 있는 판매자도 수요자가 줄 수 있는 돈의 총량이 낮아짐에 따라 가격을 낮출 수밖에 없으며 이는 해당 자산을 보유한 사람의 자산평가액의 축소로 이어지고, 시장 전체적으로 부의 총량의 감소를 가져온다.

4. 또한 기준 금리가 올랐다고 가정하면, 은행 또한 기준금리에 맞추어 더 높은 대출 이자를 채무자로부터 받아야만 하는데, 채무자는 3번의 예시로 인하여 이자를 감당하지 못할 확률이 높아지게 된다. 고로, 은행도 기준 금리의 인상에 따른 높은 대출 이자를 감당하지 못하는 중, 저신용자에 대한 대출을 더 꺼리게 되고 이는 대출을 통해 시장에 흘러가는 자금의 축소를 가져온다.

5. 반대로, 외국 화폐 대비 자국화폐의 가치는 증가한다. 왜냐하면 금리가 높아지면 앞에서 예를 들은 대출의 축소, 저축의 증가에 따라 해당 국가의 민간 시장에 유통되는 화폐의 총량이 줄어들게 되고, 시장 내에서 자국화폐가 희귀해지기 때문에 그 가치가 상승하는 것이다. 이렇게 원화의 가치가 올라가면 비싼 원화를 사기 위해 더 많은 외국 화폐를 지불해야 하고, 반대로 싼 외국 화폐를 살 때는 더 적은 원화만 지불해도 된다. 이것이 곧 환율 하락이다. 이러한 원화의 가치 상승(= 환율 하락)은 수출과 수입에 직접적인 영향을 끼친다. 예를 들어 환율이 1000원일 때 1달러 물품을 팔면 1000원의 수익을 얻을 수 있었다. 만약 원화의 가치가 올라 환율이 900원으로 내렸다면, 똑같이 1달러 물건을 팔아도 900원의 수익밖에 얻을 수 없다. 만약 같은 수준의 원화를 얻으려면 더 비싼 달러 가격으로 팔아야만 한다. 이는 수출 경쟁력 하락을 가져온다. 반면 수입 시에는 증가한 원화 가치로 더 싼 가격에 달러를 구입 할 수 있으므로 10만 원을 주고 샀던 100달러짜리 물건을 이제는 9만 원만 주면 살 수 있게 된다. 즉 원화 가치 상승(= 환율 하락)은 '수출 경쟁력의 약화'와 '수입 경쟁력의 강화' 를 유발한다.

이제, 다시 한번 생각해보자. 각 국가는 경기부양을 위해 금리를 낮춘다 라고 들었다. 이제 그 이유가 설명이 된다. 왜냐하면, 저금리의 이점은 위의 1, 2, 3, 4, 5번의 예시를 모두 거꾸로 적용하면 된다. 금리가 낮아지면 대출이자와 예금이자가 낮아져서 저축에 대한 수요를 억제하고 대출에 대한 이자부담이 적어져서 대출수요를 증가시킨다. 이때, 많은 경제 주체들은 대출이자가 위험하지 않기 때문에 대출을 더 많이 받아서 자산을 더 많이 구매하여 더 많은 수익을 내려고 할 것이고, 수요자가 늘어나니 자산인 주식, 채권, 부동산등의 가격이 오르게 되며 가격이 오르니 부의 총량이 증가하고 시장에 공급되는 통화량이 늘어나게 된다.

기업 또한 저금리로 인하여 대출을 더 많이 받아 더 공격적인 투자를 감행 할 수 있게 되고, 시장에 원화의 공급이 증가하면서 원화의 가치는 내려가게 되고, 환율이 상승하고, 100달러 짜리 물품을 팔아서 이전에는 10만 원을 벌던 것을 이제는 11만 원을 벌 수 있게 되고 이는 기업의 수출 경쟁력 상승을 가져온다. 반면 수입은 이전에 10만 원에 구입하던 100달러짜리 물품을 11만 원에 구입해야 하기 때문에 수입이 축소 되는 효과가 있다.

즉, 국가는 기준금리를 낮춤으로써, 가계, 기업, 은행 등 각 경제 주체들이 보다 더 돈을 많이, 쉽게 쓸 수 있게 함으로써 경제가 더 활발하게 돌아가도록 만들 수 있다. 그래서 경기부양을 위해서는 금리를 낮추고, 통화가 너무 많이 공급되었을 경우 다시 금리를 올려서 시장의 통화량을 조절하는 것이다.

다만 저금리 정책을 지나치게 오래 시행할 경우에는 부동산과 주식을 비롯한 자산시장이 융자를 끼고 활발해지며 필연적으로 부채의 비중이 높아지기 마련이라 경제에 거품이 낄 염려가 있다. 이러한 거품이 붕괴 될 경우 엄청난 사회적 후유증을 남길 수 있기 때문에 저금리 정책이 무조건 장점이 있는 것은 아니다.

 

 

 

Interest rates are basically rewards for the time depreciation (inflation) of money, so it is basic to go similar to the inflation rate. However, since it is difficult to accurately calculate the inflation rate and only then cannot reflect economic growth, the economic growth rate is set as the upper limit. In traditional economics, inflation is synonymous with an increase in the money supply, and it is most ideal to have something like the economic growth rate. Therefore, I hope you read the article below assuming that raising and lowering the base rate are only a short-term measure and basically following inflation. If you think that central banks in each country adjust interest rates for a certain purpose, you have to understand it more difficult and in a way that works, and it is easy to fall into conspiracy theories.

In general, governments are taking monetary policy to lower interest rates when the economy is in recession and to raise interest rates when the economy is excessive. For example, there are cases where governments around the world lowered interest rates during the Lehman Brothers crisis, and then interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. In 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve made so-called big steps (0.5%p increase) and giant steps (0.75%p increase) to raise interest rates sharply, cooling the global economy sharply.

Therefore, it is necessary to know why low interest rates stimulate the economy and why high interest rates shrink the economy.

1. If the base rate changes, it affects the overall interest rates of the financial market, such as short-term market interest rates, long-term market interest rates, and bank deposit and loan interest rates. Whether interest rates rise or fall, it affects all financial markets as a whole, but let's take an example only when interest rates rise. First of all, when the base rate rises, the interest rates in all financial markets mentioned above rise, and the rise in interest rates suppresses borrowing (borrowing) and increases savings for all economic players.

2. Both loan and deposit interest rates rise, for example, assuming that the base rate has risen. As a result, those who want to borrow from banks will try not to borrow money because interest rates have risen more than before, and those who have not made deposits will also try to make deposits because deposit interest has risen. Household savings and household loans decline on a household basis. In other words, households reduce loans because they do not want to spend money while taking out loans that have to bear high interest, and consumption decreases as they increase money on savings that can receive high interest. Companies also reduce new investment by taking out loans because interest on loans has risen, and if they do not take out loans, current funds will decrease, reducing the expenditure of current assets held by companies.

3. The price of assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate is also affected, assuming that the base rate has risen. If the base rate rises and the loan rate rises, the burden of interest increases if the loan fails to produce high profits in stocks, bonds, and real estate. Therefore, the demand to purchase these assets on a loan is suppressed, and if the buyer's purchasing capacity is reduced compared to purchasing with only the cash on hand with minimal loans, the seller who owns the asset has no choice but to lower the price as the total amount of money that the consumer can give decreases, which leads to a decrease in the asset valuation of the person holding the asset and a decrease in the total amount of wealth in the market as a whole.

4. Additionally, assuming that the base rate has risen, banks must also receive higher loan interest from the debtor in line with the base rate, which increases the likelihood that the debtor will not be able to pay the interest in three instances. As a result, banks become more reluctant to lend to low-credit people while failing to pay high loan interest due to an increase in the base rate, which reduces the funds flowing into the market through loans.

5. Conversely, the value of the local currency increases against the foreign currency. Because higher interest rates reduce the total amount of money in circulation in a country's private market as loans and savings increase, and their value increases because the local currency becomes rare in the market. When the won's value rises in this way, you have to pay more foreign currency to buy expensive won, and conversely, you only have to pay less won to buy cheap foreign currency. This is the fall of the exchange rate. This rise in the value of the won (= falling exchange rates) directly affects exports and imports. For example, when the exchange rate was 1,000 won, selling a dollar product would earn 1,000 won. If the won's value rises and the exchange rate falls to 900 won, selling a dollar product will only earn 900 won. If you want to get the same level of won, you have to sell it at a more expensive dollar price. This leads to a decrease in export competitiveness. On the other hand, since you can buy dollars at a lower price with the increased won value, you can now buy a $100 item that you bought for 100,000 won for only 90,000 won. In other words, an increase in the value of the won (= falling exchange rate) causes 'weak export competitiveness' and 'strengthening import competitiveness'.

Now, let's think again. I was told that each country would lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Now the reason can be explained. Because, the advantage of low-interest rates is to apply all examples 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 above backward. When interest rates are lowered, loan interest and deposit interest rates lower, suppressing demand for savings, and reducing the interest burden on loans, thereby increasing demand for loans. At this time, many economic players will try to make more profits by purchasing more assets by borrowing more because loan interest is not dangerous, and as consumers increase, the price of assets such as stocks, bonds, and real estate rises, and as prices rise, the total amount of wealth increases and the amount of money supplied to the market increases.